Tracking Hurricane Irma
I've been getting many questions about Hurricane Irma as of recently, so I will begin daily updates on this blog right here for those of you interested in it. This storm does not pose a risk to our area, but I want to share this with those of you who have friends and family in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina to share.
In this blog, I will break down the forecast for the different regions below:
Watches/Warnings:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet, North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River, Florida Keys, and Tampa Bay.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass, Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, Florida Bay, Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Matanzas, and La Habana. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line and north of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama.
Forecast:
Hurricane Irma has finally begun to take its northward turning, moving away from Cuba. She will make her first landfall on the Florida Keys, especially the western Keys like Key West, as a category 4 hurricane. That means sustained winds in the Keys may be up to around 140 mph, and storm surge will be 5 to 10 feet. As it moves further north, it will may make a second landfall on southwest Florida in the Naples area. This is the worst-case scenario for this part of the state. Southwest Florida is so prone to storm surge and they are expected to get 10 to 15 feet of it. The storm surge forecast maps show entire cities going underwater, like Naples, Marco Island, Fort Myers, and Cape Coral. Irma will continue to follow a northward path, basically riding the west coast of Florida. Because of how close she will still be to the water, this may allow her to maintain much of her strength as a hurricane through her life over the Florida Peninsula. We are also concerned about storm surge in Tampa Bay, where 3 to 5 feet of inundation is forecast. The large majority of the west coast of the Peninsula can expect sustained winds of at least 100 mph and gusts as high as 160 mph. Even though we’re focusing on the western half of the Florida Peninsula, this storm will very much be an eastern half event as well. The good news is that the center of Irma won’t track over the Miami area, therefore winds will be “lighter” with winds sustained up to 70 mph and gusts up to 100 mph. Much of the same is forecast for the remainder of the east coast of Florida with slightly weaker winds in the cards. 3 to 5 feet of inundation is forecast along the coast in the Miami Beach area. Further north, expect up to 4 feet of surge. The Florida Panhandle is also going to deal with impacts from Irma. Up to 3 feet of storm surge is forecast for the Big Bend of Florida with eastern portions of the Panhandle experiencing peak wind gusts of up to 90 mph. Localized flooding due to rainfall is also possible. South Florida will get the heaviest of the rain. Some locations will receive over one foot of total rainfall. With that heavy rain falling over Lake Okeechobee, there are concerns for flooding along the lake due to water levels rising. In Georgia, strong winds and heavy rains are the main risks. Winds may gust up to hurricane-force as far north as Atlanta. Rainfall totals may top 8 inches in southern Georgia. Along the coast, which is where all residents are ordered to evacuate, significant storm surge is possible. South Carolina will also deal with gusty winds up to 50 mph and storm surge expected as far north as Charleston in the range of 3 to 6 feet. As Irma moves further north, it will considerably weaken into a remnant low early next week as most of the rain dissipates and the winds calm down.
To view exactly how storm surge may impact your location, check out the National Hurricane Center’s storm surge inundation maps here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/035210.shtml?inundation#contents
Conclusion:
Hurricane Irma will be a historic storm, impacting Florida in a way we have never seen before. Irma is massive with hurricane-force-wind spanning over 70 miles away from its center, therefore bringing hurricane conditions to most of the state.
