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Winter Storm Stella Hits Today

Jackson Dill
Mar 14, 2017
4 min read

Midday Update:

Sleet continues to fall along the coast and central locations of our area. This will remain an all snow event for northern locations, let's say from Danbury and northward from there. I am sticking with my snowfall forecast from this morning (see below), but I do think some in the 18-24 inch snowfall forecast area will only receive 12-18 inches. That is because of the sleet moving a but further north than expected. This afternoon, I do anticipate most change of the area to change back to back to a light to moderate to even heavy snow. Additional accumulations with that snow I think will be anywhere between 2 and 6 inches. Winds will also increase during the early afternoon as the center of the storm moves closer to the area. Winds may gust up to 50-65 mph, so this forecast has not changed. What has changed again is the snowfall forecast. My original forecast below may not verify for everyone due to that sleet, but more additional snowfall this afternoon is likely. Enjoy the snow!

Winter Storm Stella continues to pound its way into the area as of this morning. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate by sunrise Tuesday morning as the crippling blizzard begins. I do not recall the last time Blizzard Warnings have been this widespread in the Northeast and extending this far inland before, affecting 31.2 million Americans. This dangerous storm means business!

What We Know:

Threats:

Very heavy snow from Tuesday morning through Tuesday late-afternoon.
Blizzard conditions for all of the area much of Tuesday.
Scattered power outages likely due to wind gusts up to 50-65 mph.
Minor mixing and icing at the coast in the afternoon.
Very dangerous and treacherous travel.
Coastal flooding up to 2 to 3 feet above normal tides in the early afternoon.

There is a Blizzard Warning in effect for inland locations from 12AM Tuesday through 12AM Wednesday. At the coast, there is now a Winter Storm Warning in effect for the same time period. The Blizzard Warning was canceled there due to mixing likely in the afternoon. There is also a Coastal Flood Warning in effect for the coast from 12PM through 4PM Tuesday because some of those coastal roads may experience minor to moderate flooding.

Forecast:

Winter Storm Stella, likely the biggest March snowstorm on record for our area, will affect the region during the most of the day Tuesday. The snow that's falling now will then continue nonstop through the rest of the morning and the entire afternoon, then tapering off in the evening after 6PM. As of this morning, however, the models continue to trend warmer so that risk for mixing at the coast is appearing likely now. That would cut down on snowfall totals by a few inches.

The brunt of this storm will happen during the daylight hours. I'm especially focusing on what will happen around the noon time period. The midday hours of Tuesday look the most concerning to me because that's when the heaviest snow should fall and when the winds will be the strongest.

Future radar for 11AM Tuesday

This will be the time period for when the main snow band will move through, lasting for a few hours. Snowfall rates in this band may reach two to four inches of snow per hour! That means up to four inches of snow may fall in just one hour. No doubt this will be one of the heaviest snow events you will experience in your lifetime.

Also with this snow-band, there will be blizzard condtions with visibilities at or close to zero miles, making for a whiteout. I mentioned very strong winds will accompany this band and the storm as a whole, lasting during most of the day. Winds will gust up to 50 to 65 mph, so scattered power outages are a certainty, especially at the coast where winds will be the strongest and snow will be the wettest.

Lastly, there is the chance for thundersnow! I know some of you heard thundersnow with the big snowstorm in February. That chance returns with Winter Storm Stella due to the incredible amounts of lift, or lots of air rapidly rising.

Now it's time to talk about snowfall totals. I did make some minor adjustments to my map since my Tuesday morning update. Inland locations can still expect at least 18 inches, but I truly believe some areas can pick up over two feet of snow. At the coast, totals have gone done slightly due to that mixing risk. Now at the coast, you can expect 12 to 18 inches. It's still going to be a big storm and lots of snow is on the way.

To sum up what I said, lots of snow will fall during most of the day Tuesday. It will be the heaviest around noon with wind gusts up to 65 mph and power outages

possible. There will be blizzard and whiteout conditions along with the potential for thundersnow, and the majority of the area is likely to receive at least 18-24 inches of snowfall! Lastly, I didn't mention this yet but it will be dangerous outside Tuesday because of the very low visibilities and strong winds. If you want to play in the snow, I strongly recommend you wait until Wednesday.