The Science Behind the Probability of Precipitation

The chance for precipitation or the probability of precipitation is often misrepresented. What the probability of precipitation or PoP really means that there is a 40 percent chance for rain at any point in your area, for example. This does not mean that 40 percent of your day will involve rain falling from the sky, but it means that there is a 4 out of 10 chance that you will get wet.​

I also want to add that if there's a 100 percent chance for rain one day, that does not mean it's going to be a washout. There could be a widespread line of light rain moving through an area for a few minutes, and that could represent the 100% chance for rain because it's affecting everyone in the region. In addition, there may be the chance for storms in the summer. For instance, there's a 20% chance for rain one day. What this is telling you is that there is the chance for rain, but it's not guaranteed. There could be a heavy thunderstorm affecting one town, but the adjacent town could remain dry. Now you know the science behind the probability of precipitation.

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