Hurricane Matthew Forecast Discussion

Hurricane Matthew remains as a powerful category 4 hurricane as of Tuesday morning as it continues to move north. This Tuesday is when the significant impacts will occur from Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. Matthew will begin by making landfall on western Haiti this morning.

In terms of impacts for these island nations, very heavy rain will fall is some locations, and in localized areas, up to 40 inches of rain could fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding and damage. Another threat with this hurricane are the winds of course. Haiti looks to get the strongest winds, where winds may be sustained over 100 mph at times. All other areas will experience at least tropical storm force winds, which are greater than 39 mph. The last significant risk with Hurricane Matthew is the storm surge. This is where eastern Cuba and The Bahamas looks to be affected the most with this danger. Up to 11 feet of storm surge is forecast for the southern coast there.10 to 15 feet for all of The Bahamas. Also a 7 to 10 foot storm surge at the south coast of Haiti and 3 to 5 feet for all of Jamaica is expected. Because of these multiple threats, Hurricane Warnings are in effect for all of Haiti, eastern Cuba, and all of The Bahamas. Hurricane Watches are in effect for central parts of Cuba, but these watches may be issued later today for Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic. Lastly, a Tropical Storm Warning is in place for southwestern parts of the Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos.

Hurricane Matthew will continue to move north into the Atlantic, impacting most of The Bahamas as it turns into a northwest direction. Because atmospheric conditions and water temperatures look very conducive for tropical cyclones in this part of the Atlantic Ocean, this storm may potentially explode into what I think may be a category 4 to 5 hurricane again. We'll just have to wait and see about that. Similar impacts are expected for The Bahamas and possibly Turks and Caicos as Haiti and Cuba.

Finally by the end of this week, we'll be watching Hurricane Matthew move up the United States' East Coast. The models have been trending closer to the coast lately, which is concerning. This storm looks to be especially close to the Carolinas and the Outer Banks, where there is the potential for a major hurricane landfall somewhere from Florida through North Carolina.

If you look at these spaghetti models, many of the models are clustering just off the Carolina coast. A Few of them are even forecasting a landfall on Florida, South Carolina, or North Carolina between Wednesday and Saturday. The Southeast coast looks like it is going to get hit hard with possible hurricane force winds, heavy rain, and storm surge. Then as we get into the weekend, the Northeast will have to watch this system because some of the models show significant impacts to New England. That would include heavy rain up to half a foot and hurricane force winds. If you take a look at the US GFS (American) model ensembles below, about half of them take Matthew into New England. What these ensembles represent are the track of Matthew with slightly different atmospheric conditions that could change the track. They show some other possible scenarios or outcomes.

The main reason for this uncertainty is due to a trough of low pressure moving east across the country, but then once it get closer to the East Coast, it may weaken a bit and lift to the northeast. The strength of this trough, the timing of this trough, and the timing of the hurricane will determine our fate. If the trough were to be a strong one and the hurricane moves pretty quickly, it will likely be picked up by the trough, which will bring it to New England. This is the bad scenario for us. The good scenario is a much weaker trough and a slow hurricane. The trough may completely miss Hurricane Matthew, leading to few impacts to our area, although there may still be heavy rain from the cold front moving through.

Because there is still plenty of uncertainty this far out in time, you do not need to make any preparations now, but I do recommend for you to make a hurricane plan just in case. This is especially important if you live at the coast because of storm surge. For more information on how to make a hurricane plan, please click here. If you live along the Southeast coast of the US, however, so should be preparing now.

Please stay updated with Jackson's Weather the next several days for the latest developments regarding Hurricane Matthew.

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