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UPDATE MONDAY:
Widespread 4-7 inches of snow now forecast for the area.
UPDATED SUNDAY AT 4:20PM:
It's April. Typically we think about the warmer weather, the occasional rain showers, and the blooming flowers -- Not this year. Mother Nature has another plan up her sleeves, which involves snow Sunday night into Monday morning. I explain everything you need to know in the article below.
Timing:
Snow begins: Between 2 and 4am Monday
Peaks in intensity: Between 6 and 10am Monday
Snow ends: Between 9am and 11am Monday
Temperatures:
Sunday night: Temperatures will drop to around freezing
Monday morning: Will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s while the snow is falling
Monday afternoon: Highs between 42 and 46F
Wind:
Occasional gusts up to 10-15 mph during the duration of the storm
Snowfall:
Confidence: Moderate
Most areas will receive 2-5 inches
Biggest question is whether it will accumulate on roadways
Impacts:
Snow during the Monday morning commute
Several inches of snowfall
Discussion:
Now let's discuss this storm in a more detailed manner. An upper-level disturbance that moved into the Northwest coast will track through the country and will end up off the Northeast coast on Monday. This disturbance will be responsible for the snow in our area. This will not be a strong coastal storm or nor'easter that develops. Instead, a weak area of low pressure is expected to form once the upper-level disturbance moves offshore, but this storm will remain very weak. That's why winds will be light and will not be an issue with this storm, thankfully.
So our storm will begin to affect southwestern Connecticut early-Monday morning. There will be some dry air in place, so it may take up to two hours for the snow to actually start falling despite it falling higher up in the atmosphere. When precipitation is falling from the cloud but is not reaching the ground, this is called virga. By 5am, however, the snow should be falling across the area, which will cool temperatures down to below freezing. All areas, except for the immediate coast, will drop below the 32F degree mark, so snow is likely. Is there the chance for rain or a mix? Yes, but it is a very small chance and the best chance for that occurring is at the coast. This should be an all-snow event, however, which will persist through noon the latest on Monday.
One or two heavier snow bands will develop. Based on the typical atmospheric dynamics with these snow bands, you get an intense rising air motion within these bands, which not only makes for heavy snow, but it can also cool the air temperature thus allowing for a lighter, fluffier snow. These bands are effect snow-pruducers. Meanwhile between snow bands, there is sinking air or subsidence. This can bust a forecast because this subsidence only allows for a light snow or even rain to fall, which makes it hard for the snow to accumulate, especially this time of the year.
Based on all the model guidance, which are all in fairly good agreement, I'm thinking between two to five inches of snow will fall across the area. If some areas get into a heavy snow band, then up to six to seven inches is possible. Most of the guidance brings a heavier band into most of the area between 6 and 10am. Meanwhile, if other areas deal with subsidence through much of the duration of this storm, then only a coating to an inch may fall. Snowfall forecasts are very challenging, so hopefully I'm conveying the uncertainty that still exists clearly.
Finally, in terms of travel, it really depends on where these heavy snow bands set up. The sun will be out and temperatures will be in the 50s on Easter Sunday. This will warm the ground up. Then overnight Sunday, we'll lose that solar radiation, allowing for both the air and ground temperatures to cool. The air will cool at a faster rate down to below freezing once the snow starts to fall. Now in terms of the ground or road temperatures, which will determine whether the snow accumulates, that will be based on how heavy the snow falls. If it's a light snow, roads should be in fairly good shape. They will just be wet and maybe slushy. If a heavier snow falls, then accumulation on all surfaces is expected, which can make for a slick and challenging morning commute. Since I'm heading toward a heavy band of snow with snowfall rates of up to 1-2 inches per hour for most of our area, most/all roads should become snow-covered with several inches of snow.
Based on that, here's our latest school predictions.