No tags yet.
Winter Storm Toby continues to impact parts of the area this Wednesday. The snow was able to overcome to dry air for the southern half of southwestern Connecticut while the northern half of the area is still socked in with the dry air. This dry air has been stubborn all day so far, not allowing much snow to fall at all, especially this afternoon. This was definitely a concern with our forecast, and this dry air is responsible for the tight snowfall gradient we have warned you about.
The heaviest of snow so far has been found in the coastal towns, which has allowed for accumulations on the colder surfaces and patchy snow cover on the roadways. Temperatures have been fluctuating between 30 and 37 degrees throughout the day across the area, and the higher sun angle is actually helping to prevent much of this snow to accumulate.
As we get into the evening and overnight hours, the sun will set -- that we can 100% confidently forecast -- and the dry air across the northern towns in southwestern Connecticut will erode allowing for snow to move into all of our area. Keep in mind, it's going to be snowing throughout the night. The snow will begin for all areas by 6-8pm this evening. That snow will persist before ending between 4 and 6am Thursday. Temperatures is expected remain above freezing, however, at the coast.
This storm has been a mess to track, unlike the other storms. With this storm, there are multiple surface low centers, and the main low pressure, which is our nor'easter is developing this afternoon off the North Carolina/DelMarVa coasts. As this low tracks east-northeast, the upper-level low off to the west will follow a similar path, ending up offshore tonight. This will allow for heavier snow to move into all of our area and for most of the snow accumulation.
A heavier snow band containing snowfall rates of one inch per hour may also set up over the area. Based on this forecast outlined above, we have decided to lower our snowfall forecast down to 3-6 inches for most locations based on the new radar trends.
