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Based on the latest model guidance, I see no reason really to change my forecast besides some specific details. If anything, slightly higher snowfall totals can be expected than previously thought due to a slight westward adjustment in the track. There is still some uncertainty that remains, which is where exactly will this nor'easter track. The model guidance is beginning to lock in on a storm moving southeast of the 40/70 benchmark, which would favor heavy snow across eastern New England. If that low tracks 50 miles even closer to the coast, which is still possible, then we could be talking about more snow than what is currently forecast. Below, we have everything you need to know from the timing to the impacts and the complete technical discussion.
Timing:
Snow starts: Between 10pm Monday and 1am Tuesday
Peak intensity: Between 4am and 11am Tuesday
Main snow shield ends: Between 12pm and 4pm Tuesday, snow showers may follow for remainder of day
Temperatures:
Monday night: Low temperatures between 28 and 33 degrees
Tuesday morning: Hovering between 29 and 32 degrees
Tuesday afternoon: Rising into the mid 30s
Snowfall:
Confidence: Moderate
Western towns: 3-6 inches
Eastern towns: 6-10 inches
Very sharp snowfall gradient on western edge of snow shield may bust forecast
Threats:
Snow Monday night into Tuesday
Wind gusts up to 35-40 mph, strongest at coast
Isolated power outages
Heaviest snow Tuesday morning
Forecast Discussion:
Again, there are no big changes since the release of our first discussion Sunday evening. Our nor'easter has formed off the Carolina coast and is beginning to "bomb out" or rapidly-strengthen as pressures fall from around 1005 millibars down to 955-960 millibars Tuesday evening, which is equivalent in strength to a category 3 hurricane. Thankfully, this storm will be far enough offshore so New England won't deal with 100+ mph wind gusts. Instead in our neck of the woods of southwestern Connecticut, winds will gust at times up to 35-40 mph, peaking Tuesday morning.
The track of this rapidly-strengthening low pressure is still a bit uncertain. The model guidance is indicating this storm may shift either 50 miles closer or farther away from the coast. Based on our location, it's a tough forecast due to a very tight snowfall gradient. The European model's ensemble members, as shown in the graphic below, signal that even a slight shift in the track or where the heavy snow band will set up will be the matter of 2 inches of snow or over a foot.
I'm currently thinking around half a foot of snow will fall, but just 20 miles to the west, only an inch may fall. If this low were to track closer to the coast, then our entire area could shift into the 6-10 inch forecast zone. The same applies to if the nor'easter tracks further offshore than what is forecast. If this were to happen, then we may only receive an inch or two of snow. There is definitely the bust potential to this forecast, but my current forecast of three to six inches for western towns and six to ten inches for eastern towns supports the most likely scenario.
I'm also keeping the close eye on a deformation band that sets up on the outer swath of the snow shield. There will be the main, heavy band that impacts eastern New England, which is where blizzard conditions are possible, but then another heavier band with snowfall rates of up to two inches per hour may set up for up to 6-8 hours near the New York/New England border, which includes southwestern Connecticut. This can be shown on the NAM model image below where the reds and pink represent those heavy bands. To be more technical, this is where the best frontogenesis and lift is expected to be located.
Now that we discussed snowfall, let's talk timing and impacts: A light snow is expected to begin Monday evening, likely between 10pm and 1am. Snowfall intensities will increase after a few hours from the start of the event, with a moderate snow beginning early-Tuesday morning and continuing through about noon on Tuesday. The heaviest of snow, where snowfall rates at times may reach 1-2 inches per hour, will be in the mid to late morning on Tuesday (between 4am and 11am). Then as we get into the afternoon, the snow will taper. Some of the models want this snow to end at around noon while others keep it around to as late as the evening commute in the form of snow showers. Here's the future radar (time stamp is in military time at top right corner of loop):
I also get the question if the snow will "stick." It's hard for forecasters to predict whether roads will be impacted. We predict snowfall amounts, not snowfall amounts on roads that may be treated. The key thing with this event is that temperatures will be cold enough Monday night for snow to accumulate on most roads. Once there's at least a coating of snow on the grounds and roads, then that cools the surfaces cooler and allows for more snow to fall. Remember, snowfall amounts are officially measured on a while snowboard every six hours. This allows for most or all of the snow to accumulate and to reduce compaction of the snow, according to the National Weather Service.
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