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5AM Update: The overnight model guidance has trended colder with a more eastward track of this storm, so now more snow is expected to fall through Wednesday night. Please read through for important changes, which we alluded to may happen.
Winter Storm Quinn, another nor'easter, will bring highly-impactful weather to the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, dropping up to 18 inches of snow and bringing wind gusts of up to 50 mph, which may unfortunately lead to more outages.
Current Alert:
Winter Storm Warning in effect until 4am Thursday
Inland Timing:
Start: Snow has already started
Snowfall intensity peak: From 10am through 9pm (snowfall rates up to 3-4 inches per hour possible)
End: Between 12am and 5am Thursday
Temperatures:
Wednesday: Hovering at freezing inland, in the mid 30s at the coast
Wednesday night: Lows in the low to mid 30s
Snowfall:
Confidence: Moderate
Coast: 10-14 inches forecast for most areas
Inland: 14-18 inches forecast for most areas
Forecast Discussion:
Winter Storm Quinn, another nor'easter, has developed off from the DelMarVa and will track close to the Northeast coast through Wednesday before moving toward the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday night.
Early Wednesday morning, a light snow will fall and will continue through the time you wake up Wednesday morning. Accumulations at this point will likely be between one and three inches, so roads, especially inland, will likely be snow-covered and slick, forcing all schools to close in Fairfield County. Then for the rest of the daylight hours of Wednesday morning, snow will begin to slam most or all of the region, although the coast may experience a mix or some rain.
Once we get into the afternoon and evening, however, that's when the forecast becomes more confident, something that we weren't quite as sure of when we originally wrote this on Tuesday. The trend based on the Tuesday night model guidance is for the low to track a bit more to the east, thus decreasing the risk for warm air intrusions and therefore the risk for rain. I'm now thinking all inland areas will deal with a heavy snow in the afternoon and evening with even blizzard conditions possible. Between 14 and 18 inches of snow should fall in this area. At the coast, some mixing cannot be ruled out in the afternoon, but most model guidance are now keeping the heavy snow around all afternoon and evening with blizzard conditions also possible there. Most areas should receive 10 to 14 inches of snow.
Now you may be wondering: why is it snowing with temperatures just above freezing? The simple answer is that temperatures will be below freezing throughout the air column until you get to the surface. So from about 500 feet up through the clouds, it's below 32 degrees, as shown in the forecast atmospheric profile below, so the snow won't have time to melt when it reaches the ground. The fact that the snow will be heavy will make it easy for the snow to accumulate too.
In terms of wind with this storm, the day will start off breezy with gusts up to 20 mph. It's not until the afternoon and evening when the gusts peak, getting up to 34 mph inland and up to 40 mph at the coast. Not only are blizzard conditions possible, especially inland due to only snow forecast, but additional power outages. If you are reading this article this Tuesday evening, have your generator ready if you have one and make sure you have plenty of batteries, flashlights, and extra blanket because scattered to widespread power outages can be expected once again. I don't think power outages will reach the extent from Winter Storm Riley last week, but it will be close, especially with the accumulating, heavy wet snow inland. I wish I had better news but I'm just the messenger of angry Mother Nature.
Now for coastal flooding, little to none is expected. This will be a quick-mover compared to Riley and the storm won't be as strong. Riley's central low pressure got down to around 970 millibars; Quinn is expected to drop into the mid to upper 980s.
To sum this up, enjoy the snow day. 10-14 inches of snow is expected at the coast and 14-18 inches is expected inland. Some areas at the immediate coast may receive as low as 8 inches of snow depending if any rain mixes in.
Stay with Jackson's Weather for the latest updates on this storm. Also follow us on Twitter or view our feed below as we track the newest developments with Quinn.