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Its been quiet warm this week but the models the past few days latched onto the idea of a snowstorm impacting the region this weekend before we warm back up again next week. We have everything you need to know about this low-impact snow event, which is named Winter Storm Noah, here.
Current alerts:
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 5pm Sat. through 7am Sun.
Timing:
Snow starts: Between 4pm and 6pm Saturday
Peaks in intensity: 6pm through 11pm
Snow ends: Between 1am and 3am
Winds:
Winds will not be an issue with this event
Gusts will reach as high as 20 mph during event, up to 30 mph on Sunday
Temperatures:
Will be marginal, making it hard to accumulate on roads at first
Will hover between 30 and 33 degrees, warmest at coast
Snowfall:
Confidence: Moderate
Widespread totals of 4-7 inches
Heaviest just inland, where some areas may top off at 8 or 9 inches for localized areas
Slightly above-freezing temperatures at the coast may keep totals down to 4-5 inches.
Forecast and Discussion:
I'm calling this a low-impact snow event not because we will receive up to about half a foot of snow but because of the timing. It's a holiday weekend, many people are away and on vacation, and the snow will happen on a Saturday night, thus limiting most travel concerns. I love watching the snow fall during the day, but with this storm you'll go to bed with nothing then wake up to a snow-covered ground.
So on Saturday, it will be a dry day with sunny skies early before high clouds stream in ahead of our winter storm. With high temperatures right around freezing, this will help cool the ground following the warmth during the workweek and will help much of the snow accumulate. Then during the evening, the snow will begin to move in. It will be light at first as the snow begins to fall and works to saturate the air column. It's not until we approach midnight when the wet snow will start falling down at a moderate to heavy clip. Snowfall rates may reach two inches per hour at times, which is why this quick-moving snow event is able to produce about half a foot of snow in six to eight hours. Even with marginal temperatures, I think these heavy snowfall rates will overcome the temperatures and will allow much of it to accumulate. This snowstorm will be an efficient snow-producing partly due to strong lift in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). This forecast upper-level sounding from the NAM model for early-Sunday morning shows those higher "lift" values on the left side of the chart between the 'DBZ'. This will create large snowflakes.
This storm will also contain the atmospheric dynamics of strong lift conducive for heavy snow to fall. The computer model image highlights where the best lift is, which represents the brighter colors.
There is still some uncertainty on how much snow will fall, but we're thinking between four to seven inches is the most likely scenario, as of Saturday morning's update. There is the chance some areas receive eight or nine inches based on the hi-res (mesoscale) modeling.
