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UPDATE: Here are the latest rainfall totals through 12PM Sunday:
We dealt with heavy rain earlier this week but the cherry on top is headed Sunday into Monday, and this storm will likely be worse. The storm that is forecast to slam the Northeast is actually associated with Tropical Storm Philippe over Florida. We will not have a tropical cyclone headed to our area, but it will be something similar. Between now and Sunday, it will quickly make its way up the East Coast of the U.S. as a trough of low pressure to the west picks it up and brings it into the Northeast coast as a powerful, hurricane-force low. This storm will pack a punch with strong winds expected, and since this storm will originate from the tropics, it will lead to deep tropical moisture, therefore threatening us with heavy rain and flooding.
Heavy Rain
One of the main risks associated with this monster storm is the heavy rain. I mentioned that there will be tropical moisture streaming up the coast all the way from the Caribbean Sea. Below, you'll see a map showing the forecast PWAT (Precipitable Water) values for Sunday night. The reds and purples show high to extreme water content in the atmosphere. The greater the amount of available moisture, the greater the chance for heavy rain.
Some areas of the Northeast will receive over four inches of rainfall. In our neck of the woods in southwestern Connecticut, around two inches seems like the most reasonable scenario.
There is support for these kinds of rainfall totals. The European model gives our area a 20 to 50 percent chance for at least 2 inches of rainfall within 24 hours. The heaviest of rain should fall Sunday night.
Another threat related to the heavy rain is the chance for flooding. Some parts of our area already picked up three to six inches of rain earlier this week, so another two to four inches or so of additional rainfall won't allow for all of that rain to drain if it falls at a heavy rate. Also some minor river flooding is possible but I'm not too concerned about that.
Damaging Winds
Damaging winds is another risk that I'm concerned about with this upcoming monster storm. Winds will pick up throughout the day on Sunday, peaking Sunday night and Monday morning. Winds may gust as high as 50-70 mph to all of the area. The strongest will be at the coast where there isn't much friction.
First of all, we'll have a hurricane-force low making "landfall" somewhere on the Northeast coast between New Jersey and Long Island. A storm that strong will already contain strong winds. There will also be a strong low level jet about 1,000 feet about the surface, so that will contribute to the intense winds, especially while the rain comes down.
Most of the trees still contain their leaves, so that will allow for the winds to have a better handle on them and it will increase the chances for the downing of trees and branches. The wet, saturated grounds will make it easier for trees to come down as well.
Timing
With all of that said regarding this weekend's monster storm, here's the latest timing, which shows the rain beginning Sunday morning, continuing through early Monday morning before sunrise:
We'll keep this forecast discussion updated until this storm clears out, so stay with Jackson's Weather for the very latest.